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Pluto Simulation
This is a simulation of what one would expect to find on a terraformed Pluto, using formulas from Math And Terraforming. Please note that not even the supercomputers at NASA can provide us with a perfect simulation. The information showed here is only an approximation. Basic data *Distance from Sun: **Aphelion: 7376 million km **Semi-major axis: 5906 million km **Perihelion: 4437 million km *Diameter: 2377 km *Solar Constant: **Aphelion: 0.000813 **Semi-major axis: 0.00127 **Perihelion: 0.00225 *Mass: 0.00218 Earths *Mean density: 1.854 kg/l *Year length: 248 Earth years *Day length: 6.387 Earth days *Rotation axial tilt: 57 degrees Important! The solar constant of 0.002 is the lowest that can support plant life. Because of this, no celestial body beyond Neptune could be terraformed without an artificial source of light. Temperature Main article: Temperature. Before everything, we must acknowledge that Pluto has an elliptical orbit. Because of this, with the same amount of greenhouse gasses, it will be very hot in summer and very cold in winter. We will try on this simulation to fix an average temperature of +15 C when Pluto is at semi-major axis. See Temperature for more details regarding formulas used for this simulation. Void temperature is the temperature a celestial body, neutral grey in color, exposed to a source of light of a known Solar Constant (Ks). *Aphelion: Ks = 0.000813, void temperature = -221 C or 52 K. *Semi-major axis: Ks = 0.00127, void temperature = -215 C or 58 K. *Perihelion: Ks = 0.00225, void temperature = -206 C or 67 K. By amplifying temperatures (adding greenhouse effects), we get the following values: *Aphelion: terraformed temperature = -15 C *Semi-major axis: terraformed temperature = +15 C *Perihelion: terraformed temperature = +60 C. Alternatively, one can get the best temperature at aphelion or at perihelion. In that case, it will be like this: *Aphelion: terraformed temperature = 15 C *Semi-major axis: terraformed temperature = 48 C *Perihelion: terraformed temperature = 98 C. or *Aphelion: terraformed temperature = -49 C *Semi-major axis: terraformed temperature = -23 C *Perihelion: terraformed temperature = 15 C. As one can see, Pluto will not be habitable during summer and will be ice-covered during winter. The main problem is that seasons last over 50 Earth years! For this, Pluto will need Greenhouse Gases. The Greenhouse Calculator shows us that we will need 11.3 kg per square meter of sulfur hexafluoride in order to maintain a temperature of 15 C at semi-major axis. Atmosphere See Atmosphere Parameters Pluto is a large body that holds an atmosphere. For a long period of time, it can hold an atmosphere dense enough for humans to live. *Atmosphere stability for oxygen molecules: **Earth's gravity (15 degrees C): 4.116 **Pluto's gravity (60 degrees C): 55.47 **Pluto's gravity (15 degrees C): 47.98 **Pluto's gravity (-15 degrees C): 42.98 **Pluto's gravity (-215 degrees C): 9.683 *Atmosphere stability for water molecules: **Earth's gravity (15 degrees C): 7.320 **Pluto's gravity (60 degrees C): 98.63 **Pluto's gravity (15 degrees C): 85.30 **Pluto's gravity (-15 degrees C): 76.42 **Pluto's gravity (-215 degrees C): 17.21 *Atmosphere stability for hydrogen molecules: **Earth's gravity (15 degrees C): 65.88 **Pluto's gravity (60 degrees C): 704 **Pluto's gravity (15 degrees C): 609 **Pluto's gravity (-15 degrees C): 545 **Pluto's gravity (-215 degrees C): 123 notes: A value below 10 means stability for over a million years, a value between 10 and 100 means stability between 0.1 and 10 millions of years, while a value higher then 100 means stability for less then 10 thousand years. This calculation does not include solar wind erosion. Conclusion: Surprisingly, the atmosphere seems to be stable for oxygen, which also means that nitrogen is in the stable zone. However, Pluto is not protected by a magnetosphere. The atmosphere will look like this: Ground average temperature: 60 degrees C *Surface pressure at sea level: 0.8 *Atmosphere total mass (Earth = 1): 0.80 *Atmosphere breathable height: 198 km *Atmosphere total height: 589 km Ground average temperature: 15 degrees C *Surface pressure at sea level: 1 *Atmosphere total mass (Earth = 1): 0.80 *Atmosphere breathable height: 171 km *Atmosphere total height: 509 km Ground average temperature: -15 degrees C *Surface pressure at sea level: 1.13 *Atmosphere total mass (Earth = 1): 0.80 *Atmosphere breathable height: 153 km *Atmosphere total height: 455 km Ground average temperature: -215 degrees C *Surface pressure at sea level: 1 *Atmosphere total mass (Earth = 1): 0.35 *Atmosphere breathable height: 79.0 km *Atmosphere total height: 235 km. Combined values *Atmosphere total mass (Earth = 1): 0.58 *Atmosphere breathable height: 130 km *Atmosphere total height: 400 km. Pluto will have a fluffy atmosphere. However, at 400 km high, gravity is lower. This will force the atmosphere to extend further, so that, in the end, it will rise a bit above a planetary radius (more exactly, to 600 km). Climate Simulation Main article: Climate. For Pluto, we will have to conduct 3 different simulations, one at aphelion, one at perihelion and one at semi-major axis. Triton has a smaller diameter then Earth (0.240), so air currents can mix temperatures faster. The atmosphere will be high enough to pass over majority of Geographic barriers. Aphelion - average temperatures for each latitude: At equinox: *poles: -14.6 C *45 deg: -15.7 C *equator: -16.1 C At winter solstice: *poles: -16.0 C *45 deg: -15.7 C *equator: -15.5 C At summer solstice: *poles: -15.2 C *45 deg: -15.2 C *equator: -15.5 C Semi-major axis - average temperatures for each latitude: At equinox: *poles: 14.6 C *45 deg: 15.7 C *equator: 16.1 C At winter solstice: *poles: 13.8 C *45 deg: 14.7 C *equator: 15.6 C At summer solstice: *poles: 16.0 C *45 deg: 16.0 C *equator: 15.6 C Perihelion - average temperatures for each latitude: At equinox: *poles: 59.4 C *45 deg: 60.6 C *equator: 61.1 C At winter solstice: *poles: 59.2 C *45 deg: 60.1 C *equator: 60.4 C At summer solstice: *poles: 60.9 C *45 deg: 61.0 C *equator: 60.4 C Day - night cycle variation: Pluto has an average-long day (6.387 Earth days), but is well protected by its greenhouse layer. So, temperature variations between day and night will not be significant. *Daily temperature variation: **Aphelion: 0.09 degrees C **Semi-major axis: 0.13 degrees C **Perihelion: 0.24 degrees C As one can see, Pluto will not experience significant heating or cooling during a day. Seasons: Triton has its axis tilted 40% with respect to the Pluto has its axis significantly tilted. However, this only produces a temperature variation between equator and poles (during equinox) of less then one degree C. During solstice, temperature differences between poles rise to nearly 2 degrees C. The real seasons on Pluto are due to its ecliptic orbit. Because of this, summers will be very hot and winters very cold. Altitude variations: Pluto will have a fluffy atmosphere and will not experience significant temperature variations with altitude. To experience the same climate change one will see on Earth on a mountain 1 km high, on Pluto you will have to get 20 km high. Atmosphere Cooling Events: Main article: Atmosphere Cooling Effect. Because Pluto lies far from the Sun, the outer layers of the atmosphere will freeze and fall. When frozen gas will pass the greenhouse layer, it will reach the hot, lower atmosphere. When this will happen, temperature will drop fast. Water vapors will condense and it will rain or snow (depending on temperature). This process is expected to happen more often at aphelion then at perihelion. After this, temperature will slowly rise back. Then, heated air will pass the greenhouse layer and replenish the upper atmosphere. Because speed of gas molecules is faster at higher temperatures, the upper atmosphere will be replenished faster at perihelion, accelerating the process, automatically increasing the amount of frozen gasses that will fall back. So, we don't know if atmosphere cooling processes will actually occur more often at aphelion or at perihelion. Pluto has the power to heat itself with *0.015 degrees C at aphelion per Earth day or one degree C in 67 Earth days *0.021 degrees C at semi-major axis per Earth day or one degree C in 48 Earth days *0.040 degrees C at perihelion per Earth day or one degree C in 25 Earth days. Conclusion. analyzed at a short time length, the climate of Pluto will be a monoclime, with very small differences between seasons, of latitude and day-night cycle. Because of this, humidity will tend to go to 100%. However, if we analyze the entire orbit, there will be huge differences. The planet will go to the extremes. In summer, it will be impossible for humans to survive, while in the long winter, it will be very cold. Geography See also: Geography, Geographic Pattern - Tectonic and Geographic Pattern - Craters. Pluto is a very complex world, with probably the most interesting variations of terrain and composition in the Solar System. Because of this, some people will agree to avoid terraforming and save this planet as a reservation. Terraformers have 5 major ways to transform an icy Outer Planet: #Increase the heat, melt the ice and transform it into an Oceanic Planet, then leave it as it is. #If possible, build Artificial Continents after melting all the ice. #Use Ground Insulation, to save the icy crust, then cover it with solid rock. #Heat the moon, until solid particles from the molten ice will form a natural insulation above the ice crust (see Iapetus Simulation). #Create an Ocean Insulation layer, that will allow us to build an ocean without transforming the atmosphere. The first option will require time, because, with the little heat received from the Sun, we will melt 1 mm of ice daily and 30 cm in an Earth year (see Adjusting Temperature for details). The use of an artificial source of heat (for example, massive nuclear generators) should hurry the process. The second option is possible. Artificial continents can be built, using the natural resources of tholins and other carbohydrates that exist on the planet. They can be transformed into floating compounds. However, we will first need to melt the whole crust. The third option is possible, with far smaller costs. Pluto has on the surface materials suitable for building a ground insulation. However, there are many mountains, where landslides are inevitable once we increase the temperature. During summer, some heat will pass through the insulation, forcing gasses and ice to evaporate and stimulate landslides. During winter, water will freeze back. The fourth option is also possible, at much lower costs. A layer of natural tholins and other impurities from ice can form an insulation. However, it will not be perfect and especially during the hot summers some heat will be absorbed by the melting ice. Because of the rugged terrain, this insulation will be removed in some parts, by landslides and water flowing. The fifth option, to melt the whole ice and create an artificial insulation layer above the ocean, will be costly like the first option and will leave no breathable atmosphere behind. 1. Oceanic planet: In this scenario, Pluto will have a very deep, global ocean, with no natural island. Manmade floating islands can exist, still. 2. Artificial continents: In this scenario, there will be large floating islands. However, Pluto is an active world, as shown by the nitrogen ices on Sputnik Plain, which are constantly moving. Continents will also move, collide and change their shapes. 3. Ground insulation: In this scenario, many Geographic features will remain as they are. However, in some parts, it will be more easy to remove mountains and fill depressions in order to build the insulation. So, some rugged terrain will disappear. 4. Natural ground insulation: This option will leave most of Pluto's surface intact, only covered with natural impurities that once were dissolved in ice. All methane and nitrogen rich ices will sublimate and form an atmosphere. So, the famous Sputnik Plain will vanish completely. 5. Ocean insulation: If this option is token into consideration, all what will remain of Pluto will be a large ocean, covered by an artificial insulation membrane. However, this seems unlikely, because there are large amounts of nitrogen, methane and carbon monoxide on the surface, which will form an atmosphere very easily. Conclusion: It is very hard to chose a certain type of terraforming for Pluto. Maybe, the solution is somewhere between. Maybe a ground insulation will work for part of the terrain, while other regions will be left without one. A very good idea is to use ground insulation for Sputnik Plain and transform it into a sea. The Sky As any Outer Planet, Pluto will have a lot of moisture in its atmosphere. The blue sky will be visible after an atmospheric cooling effect. From the surface or from orbit, people will see many celestial bodies: The Sun will be too far away to be seen as a disk. It will appear as a very bright star. Still, Charon and other two moons will be visible as disks: Charon: 68.9 units Nix: 0.82 units Hydra: 0.70 units These units show how large will be a celestial body seen (see Angular Size for details). For example, Charon will appear 68.9 units wide. It will be like a circle that is 68.9 mm wide, seen from a distance of 1 m. Some planets will also be visible, with a Magnitude as follows: *Venus: 4.9 to 5.0 *Jupiter: 4.2 to 4.8 *Saturn: 5.4 to >6 Please note that values are calculating assuming that a planet is visible as a full moon and not as a crescent. Inner planets will only be seen as crescents, so their visible magnitude will always be with about one unit higher. On the other hand, planets that appear too close to the Sun will not be visible because of Sun's strong luminosity. Because of these factors, in fact, no other planet will be visible from Pluto. Human Colonies *Population limit: 110 000 *Land population feeding capacity: plants might not survive *Largest city supported by environment: 440 people Assuming it will have similar types of terrain Earth will have, Pluto can support a Population Limit of 110 000 people. As one can see, Pluto will be in a delicate balance. The greenhouse gas layer will try to protect the moon from cooling down, while the upper layers of the atmosphere will slowly fall down, cooling the moon. In this environment, which was not enough studied, it is not known what effects can have a human intervention. Imagine a big city like Tokyo built on Pluto. Heat produced in the city will create vertical currents that will disrupt the greenhouse gas layer. Once a hole is punched, heat will escape. This will create currents that will further create holes. In the same way, a nuclear explosion can send Pluto into a runaway ice age. However, as shown at the first section, about temperature, Pluto will not be habitable all the time. It will experience hot summers when it will be too hot for humans to survive. The long winters, with maybe 70 Earth years of temperatures below freezing, will also pose a major thread. Industry Pluto is very complex, with natural deposits of tholins, methane and many organic compounds. Because of this, Pluto can be home of many industries. Soon, humans will run out of fossil fuels. This will automatically mean that we will no longer have a primary source for plastic, which is vital for our civilization. Pluto has naturally occurring organics on its surface. We can imagine large factories of plastic, rubber, medicine and many chemicals rising on the surface. Terraforming will alter natural deposits of tholins, methane and other organics. Because of this, some industrial corporations will insist that Pluto must not be terraformed. Agriculture Main article: Plants on new worlds. It appears that plants cannot survive with a solar constant below 0.002, which matches the orbit of Neptune. So, life on Pluto will be possible only at perihelion, only during summer. Maybe, some algae and some bacteria will be able to use the little light that is available between perihelion and semi-major axis. What is clear is that grains and grass cannot survive when the solar constant drops below 0.002. However, during this simulation we chosen the greenhouse mixture so that temperature will be +15 C at semi-major axis and +60 C at perihelion. This automatically means that at perihelion, except for extremophiles, no living organism will survive 50 years of hot summer. If we chose +15 C to be at perihelion, then at aphelion temperature will be too low, so low that greenhouse gasses will start to sublimate. Temperature will drop dramatically low as the atmosphere will freeze. Maybe the best solution will be to have +30 C at perihelion, even if that will mean 0 C at semi-major axis and 140 years of temperatures below freezing. This will allow plants to live when conditions allow. What is clear, is that settlers on Pluto will not be able to grow cereals without an external source of light. Transportation Depending on what method we will use for terraforming, Pluto may have or not a solid surface. If Pluto will be transformed into an ocean, we will only have water and air transportation available. However, if the crust will survive, there will be roads and rails. The terrain is very difficult and massive engineering work is needed to build a planetary infrastructure. Pluto has one natural stationary satellite, Charon. A relay station built on Charon, together with two other relay satellites built in the Lagrangean points L4 and L5 with respect to Charon, will cover the whole surface and will provide the backup for telecommunications. Pluto will have one or more space stations. Large, interplanetary ships, will stop at Styx. From there, passengers and cargo will be shipped to and from Pluto with the help of smaller ships. Tourism Unfortunately, Pluto will not be habitable for all time. During some periods of time, it will be too hot even for settlers. Pluto will offer, for most of its long year, good conditions for winter sports. It will be very good if somehow we manage to preserve as many Geographic features as possible. They will be important touristic attractions. Wild Life The biggest problem of all is what kind of plants and animals will survive on Pluto. I made experiments with plants kept in boxes, with light entering through limited holes. It proved that they survived at a luminosity similar to Neptune's orbit, but I don't know if they can produce food for settlers. My experiment was done on grass and grain. No plant survived for long at illumination levels similar to Pluto's semi-major axis. So, plants could survive, even if hard, when Pluto is at its closest approach to the Sun. Then, they will need to hibernate during the long winter, that will take 100 Earth years. During summer, they can resist to high temperatures. On Earth, we have algae and bacteria that can survive in such conditions. There are plants around the Arctic that also can survive in hot and hibernate, but we don't actually know if they can resist 100 years covered in snow. We also know that some species of animals (mainly insects and frogs) can freeze and then come back to life. However, we don't know if they can hibernate too long. So, Pluto will be the furthest object in the Solar System that can be terraformed without the use of artificial light, even if life will be active only for a limited time. Category:Simulation Category:Math